The just-concluded COP28 was hardly an unalloyed success. The numerous headlines proclaiming it “historic” or “a landmark” are overblown. The planet is still on the path to a disastrous greater than 2 degrees Celsius increase, and we’re burning twice as much fossil fuel today as we did 30 years ago.
Yet we must acknowledge one exceptional positive of the whole exercise. The world may be fractured and even at war, but all its countries actually agreed on something. Oddly, the UN process requires that the concluding “stocktake” resolution be adopted unanimously, and it happened. We should be grateful for any agreement at all.
That said, we at TCC debate whether the unanimous agreement to the heralded key provision to “transition away” from fossil fuels was a major concession by the oil and gas countries or just a calculated compromise. The big producers flat-out insist that this path would destroy the lifeblood and future prosperity of their countries. The Europeans and island nations just as adamantly demanded the world acknowledge the obvious truth that it must stop burning fossil fuels. Without agreement, the COP would have ended in disarray, villainizing the oil and gas countries on the global stage at Dubai and further galvanizing worldwide opinion and action against them. Agreement to the unenforceable promise of an orderly transition over 30 years seems to keep them, just barely, in the “good guy” camp. It will also arguably perpetuate global complacency.
Here are a couple other takeaways:
A considerable number of oil and gas corporations and nations see the writing on the wall. This shift in sentiment led to a commitment by 50 global oil giants, including many national oil companies, to dramatically cut methane emissions from the natural gas production and distribution process, with major steps before 2030. The stocktake agreement, which is unfortunately non-binding, noted the need to cut methane in its text, and many more methane-related actions were promised as well. It should have happened decades ago. In any case, these pledgers understand their hand was forced. New methane monitoring satellites in 2024 will be able to identify the exact location of methane emissions.
U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry and a few allies blocked language that might otherwise have been in the stocktake document, obligating historic emitters to help developing countries pay for clean energy systems. One can hardly blame him, though, as there’s little hope the U.S. government could have delivered on it. Steps to more fully address it were kicked down the road to next year’s COP in Azerbaijan.
