At a side event of COP28 put on by the excellent Copenhagen-based nonprofit the World Climate Foundation, I balanced my lunch on a high top with a German-Australian engineer who consults with developing countries, a Zambian entrepreneur, and a Dutch businesswoman. We traded cards and discussed whether the world needs more climate tech or just to fully deploy wind and solar - a common debate in climate circles. (I’m on the innovation side.) The Australian argued that many poorer places just need a bottom-up deployment of solar micro-grids, to which the other two nodded. Good stuff.
Meanwhile, government negotiators continue their agonizing dance. This COP is intended to end on Tuesday, but sometimes they get extended until an agreement is reached. For what it’s worth, UAE organizers claim the 130+ heads of state gathered in Dubai were more than had ever assembled in one place for any reason.
Oil companies and countries dependent on oil revenues pushed back against the prospect of an official “stocktake” that calls for eliminating fossil fuels. On Sunday COP President Sultan Al Jaber held a press conference insisting the parties must find consensus on “fossil fuels.” Previous COPs have only referred to “emissions” to avoid offending oil and gas partisans.
The B Team, a group that includes Marc Benioff and Richard Branson, organized a letter to Al Jaber from 400 religious, NGO, philanthropic and business leaders, entitled The Transformation Is Unstoppable. It includes a call for “An orderly phase out of all fossil fuels in a just & equitable way, in line with a 1.5C trajectory.”
At the Bloomberg Green conference, I heard the moderator ask U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry: “Have American oil and gas companies gotten religion on net zero?” “Not all of them,” Kerry answered. He then mumbled something about Exxon and methane. “So they’re moving differently than Chevron,” he added. “What more could Chevron do?” the Bloomberg moderator asked. “Everything,” Kerry replied, as the whole room, mostly business leaders, erupted in vigorous applause.
Even if no concrete agreement to “phase out” or “phase down” fossil fuels is reached - which would be a major disappointment - the issue will be more firmly on the world’s agenda than before. But because their profits are seriously threatened, the big fossil fuel producers will keep fighting back. “The term ‘phasing out’ is a decision like a death sentence,” a negotiator for oil-rich Kuwait said at the event.
Every oil and gas producer wants to be the last one standing, knowing that at least some fossil fuels will be needed for a long time. But one reason Exxon and Chevron fight so dirty is that their cost of domestic crude oil production is far higher than most OPEC producers. Unless they get the gumption to decisively turn toward clean energy, they are likely to be the first to fail.
It's been disjunctive reading all the criticism in the global press about Al Jaber and this event, where almost all the 100,000 attendees are earnestly trying to do the right thing. It’s easier to try to cancel El Jaber than to engage with the extremely difficult realities of the energy transition.
Fossil fuels continue to account for about 80% of global energy production. We’ll remain intertwined with them for a long time. It’s a devil’s bargain. We can’t live without their products. That’s why the negotiations are so agonizing.
As Ed King from the excellent GSCC Network put it in an update: “The reality is many country representatives don’t want an ambitious outcome. That’s a hard one for activists to swallow given the multiple extreme weather impacts globally, but many still prioritize short term national economic interest over global survival.”
It's especially complicated for the poorest developing countries, which in many cases cannot afford to pay the costs of a transition. They want energy any way they can get it, and quickly. Around 600 million Africans, for example, still have no electricity. You can’t tell them to wait. This is where solar micro-grids can be valuable. It should be the job of developed countries like ours–the historic largest emitters who created the problem - to help them pay for it.
For all the controversies and the inevitable failures, this COP broke new ground by including key climate issues previously downplayed or omitted. Food, agriculture, oceans, impacts on human health, gender equality, and impacts on indigenous peoples are among issues officially discussed, many for the first time. It has spurred a more holistic global discussion about the systemic changes needed.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Sunday published an analysis of COP28 so far: “While the pledges are positive steps forward in tackling the energy sector’s greenhouse gas emissions, they would not be nearly enough to move the world onto a path to reaching international climate targets… This reduction in 2030 emissions represents only around 30% of the emissions gap that needs to be bridged to get the world on a pathway compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5 C.”
Senior Editor, David Kirkpatrick
