Donald Trump’s presidency will be a major setback for climate action. But could his new bromance with Elon Musk soften the blow?
Musk poured $120 million (of his now $300 billion net worth) into Trump’s campaign in its closing weeks and amplified Trump’s fabrications full tilt on X (Twitter). In contrast, the oil & gas guys didn’t take up Trump’s offer to obliterate pollution and climate policies in exchange for a billion-dollar campaign contribution. It’s a kind of changing of the guard. The vastly rich Musk and his tech bros now seem to hold more sway.
Musk starts off intertwined with the incoming president to a degree never seen before for a business leader. He’s already been on the phone with Trump and President Zelensky. (SpaceX’s Starlink satellite communication system has been critical for Ukraine.) Musk is apparently helping Trump pick cabinet members and commenting on things like Federal Reserve independence. But he also acknowledges the gravity of climate change and garnered much of the wealth that makes him the world’s richest person from EV-maker Tesla.
Trump has no moral bounds or principled loyalty to campaign promises. Musk might thus sway him on certain policies – at least until he steals too much of the spotlight for himself.
Trump has repeatedly promised to “drill baby drill,” and is expected again to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accords. He calls Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) the “green new scam.” But Tesla is a major beneficiary of IRA tax incentives. And Musk himself took principled climate positions last time– he quit two presidential advisory groups in protest after Trump pulled out of the Paris Treaty during his first term.
Musk has already softened Trump’s reflexive bias against EVs, which the president-elect earlier called “all-electric nonsense.” But Trump more recently said he had “no choice” but to embrace EVs, “because Elon endorsed me.” Trump also said that now, “I’m totally for them.”
When the Tesla CEO announced its Model 3 in 2016, he asked the audience “Why does Tesla exist? Why are we making electric cars?” and answered his own question: “Because it’s very important to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport…for the future of the world.”
Musk spent election night with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago Club. He sometimes shows little urgency to act on climate. But in 2021 he announced he would fund a $100 million X Prize for projects to remove large amounts of atmospheric carbon. “Time is of the essence,” he said.
Musk has a big interest in what Trump does about China. Tesla now makes half its vehicles in Shanghai and is one of the biggest customers for Nvidia’s AI chips, which are all made in Taiwan. Trump wants to charge a 60% tariff on Chinese products.
Chinese regulators are currently holding up Tesla’s ability to make its autonomous driving software available there, The Information recently reported, even as Tesla’s increasingly-successful local EV competitors already offer comparable features. The Information speculated Musk might try to convince Trump to soften President Biden’s 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs or other green products if Chinese regulators, in exchange, fast-track approval for his self-driving software.
Musk could also educate Trump more broadly about how China’s industrial policies have made it dominant and the price leader in EVs, solar panels, wind turbines and lithium-ion batteries, the exponentially growing energy transition industries. Tesla has been a global bright spot in the energy transition. But to sustain economic growth and prosperity the US needs to double down on such products, which the world has made clear it wants.
Certainly, Musk and his Silicon Valley pals see the technology revolution defining the future. Musk is driving towards an all-electric/robotic vehicle fleet and human-like robots to do manual labor. He is pro crypto and his xAI startup is rapidly becoming a global leader in artificial intelligence. Federal policies can supercharge it all. The US stock market seems to agree, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ up 5% since the election and Tesla up 32%.
Nevertheless, despite his often erratic and selfish behavior, Musk is a superb business and engineering thinker. “He has the best track record of anyone in the world in reframing complex industry systems,” wrote influential tech analyst Azeem Azhar after the election. “If Elon focuses on what he’s good at – being an engineer – the U.S. technology sector could reap the rewards…A zero-carbon electrified economy is both cheaper and better than a fossil-based economy.”
“I think we should just generally lean in the direction of sustainability,” Musk said to Trump in August, as they held a two-hour live chat on X.
*The US Constitution forbids foreign born Musk from becoming President.
David Kirkpatrick & Doug McKeige
